UK car industry “on course” to hit ZEV Mandate for 2024
New analysis from the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) has found that the UK car industry is on course to hit the Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV) Mandate’s sales targets of 22% target for 2024.
Analysis of vehicle CO2 data from the Department for Transport and vehicle sales data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), together with projections for vehicle sales in December based on previous years’ sales trends, reveals that the car industry as a whole is on course to hit the ZEV mandate target of 22% in 2024.
This is made up of credits earned from selling EVs – likely to be around 19% – and credits earned from selling low-CO2 emissions petrol and diesel vehicles – likely to be over 3%.
This analysis reiterates the statement recently made by independent Government advisors, the Climate Change Committee, that the car industry as a whole is on course to meet its ZEV mandate target for 2024.
Colin Walker, Head of Transport at the ECIU, said:
“Suggestions that the car industry will be unable to hit the ZEV mandate target in 2024 are based on a misunderstanding of what the ZEV mandate target actually is. The previous Government, supported by the car industry, designed it to be achieved not only through the sale of EVs but also through the sale of large numbers of low emission petrol and diesel cars.
“The car industry as a whole is currently on track to meet the 22% target for 2024. The mandate is having the desired effect of driving down costs and driving up sales, enabling more families to get behind the wheel of cleaner, cheaper-to-run cars.
“Some manufacturers have been slow to wake up to the global shift towards EVs and are being left behind, but many – including BMW, Mercedes and Hyundai – are ahead of the mandate targets. Government may want to consider more incentives to enable even more households to go electric, but lowering the UK’s EV ambitions by weakening with the mandate would risk putting the UK car industry in the slow lane at a time when global competition is only hotting up, and stalling billions of pounds of investment in the UK’s charging infrastructure.
“Weakening the mandate will remove competition, prices could well increase, growth in EV sales will slow and expansion of the second hand EV market will be held back, leaving people stuck driving dirtier and more expensive-to-run petrol cars for longer.”
Ginny Buckley, Founder of Electrifying.com said:
“This analysis shows that this key piece of legislation is having the desired effect. The ZEV mandate ensures that the car industry shifts away from fossil fuels, providing it with a clear direction and timeline to work from, allowing manufacturers to plan production, streamline supply chains, and invest in new technology effectively.
“However, cars are only half the picture. Alongside this transition, there’s a race to build charging infrastructure and drivers need confidence that charging facilities are in place to encourage them to make the switch to electric vehicles viable.
“The charging industry is already investing billions of pounds, ahead of demand, and ensuring the infrastructure is ready. To support this level of investment, we need a structured framework for car sales, which the ZEV mandate provides.
“The mandate must also be paired with strong government support for charging infrastructure and incentives for private buyers. Still, I see no reason to dilute its ambition, particularly given the fact the industry is on course to hit the 2024 target.”
Andy Palmer, Founder of Palmer Automotive, said:
“The ZEV Mandate is proving that demand exists for BEVs. However, it requires a price correction which is good news for consumers. The bad news for manufacturers is that they are forced to discount where their product offer doesn’t fit the market requirements. This is the challenge of management and product planners, but the challenger Chinese brands are leading the way.
“The ZEV is a clear policy signal for investors and any dilution could have a negative effect on the whole transition and hurt the autos even further. However short term help might be necessary to help laggard OEMs catch up.”
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