A new report by LCP Delta has suggested that Britain is on course to miss its Clean Power target for 2030 by 12%.
The study, The GB Power Market Outlook 2026, finds that the UK is making progress towards Clean Power 2030, but it will not be fully achieved.
According to the analysis, the country is on track to reach 83% of clean power by 2030 against the 95% generation benchmark set by the UK Government.
Only four of the eight key technologies are currently on track to meet theCP2030 capacity targets, with offshore wind, onshore wind, solar and batteries “unlikely to meet their respective targets without additional intervention”, it said.
But the study said it would be possible to accelerate 2030 build-out in most areas to reach target ranges, although offshore wind has longer lead times.
Under the LCP Accelerated Build scenario, the proportion of generation from clean power sources increases to 86%, still short of the 95% target.
A key barrier to the target is use of gas to deal with network constraints, with targeted measures to improve constraint management and accelerate network build can increase the percentage of generation from clean power sources to 90% under the LCP accelerated build scenario.
While still below the 95% target, achieving the 90% level would still represent a significant milestone, as gas usage is substantially reduced and consumers would be better protected from gas price shocks.
Emissions would fall to 37gCO₂/kWh, achieving the CP2030 target of emissions well below 50gCO₂/kWh.
In the report foreword, the authors George Martin, Sam Hollister, Iris Shrestha, and Oliver Minchin said:
“Our report finds that by 2030 under our current trajectory, only 83% of GB electricity generation will be produced by clean power, below the 95% Clean Power target. However, we find that it is possible to increase this with the right interventions. Under the LCP Accelerated Build scenario, the clean power % could increase to 90%; with 95% reached by 2032, just two years later than targeted.
“To get closer to achieving CP2030, we are urging the government to move faster on the policies that matter most: boosting renewable deployment, fixing grid connection delays, ensuring delivery of network upgrades and implementing constraint management measures. Swift action in these areas will help unlock investment, lower consumer bills and keep the GB power system on track for a secure, clean energy future.”
Jess Ralston, Head of Energy at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), said:
“Whether it’s 80% or 95% clean, bills are set to be more stable because of the net zero shift to renewables, as UK consumers are better shielded from global gas crises like the ones triggered by the Russia-Ukraine and US-Iran wars.
“Last year large windfarms lowered wholesale electricity prices by a third, and every wind turbine built or solar panel installed means gas sets the price less of the time so volatility won’t affect us as much in future. In Spain, power prices are among the lowest in Europe because they have lots of renewables. Had investment in the electricity grid not stalled over the past decade, UK electricity bills could have been lower.
“More wind and solar means we need to buy less foreign gas as the North Sea, irrespective of new drilling, continues its inevitable decline; even by the oil and gas industry’s own ambitious estimates. It’s simply a mature basin with around 90% of oil and gas already extracted. More investment in the grid is going to be needed if we aren’t to become ever more dependent on foreign fuels, but engineering and bureaucracy issues should be fixable.”
Graphic from report courtesy of LCP Delta
