The National Energy System Operator (NESO) has published its 2025 Early View of Winter Outlook, setting out its initial operational expectations for the 2025/26 Winter period.
NESO’s report sets out its expectations for operational margins across the winter, reflecting he excess electricity that is expected to be available.
This year’s early view of winter report anticipates an operational margin of 6.6GW (10.9%) which is the highest anticipated margin since the 2019/20 winter, and reflects an improved margin of 1GW compared to last year’s Winter Outlook figure of 5.2GW.
This increase in anticipated margin has been driven by a variety of factors, NESO said, reflecting the growth in supply from battery storage at both the national transmission and regional distribution network levels, alongside an increase in the availability of electricity generation from gas and the commissioning of the Greenlink electricity interconnector between Ireland and Wales.
While the operational view across the winter period is positive there may still be some tight days requiring NESO’s control room engineers to use the operational tools at their disposal, it said.
This includes the use of Capacity Market Notices and Electricity Market Notices to inform the owners of electricity generating technologies like wind farms, batteries or power stations, that additional electricity supplies may be required to meet specific operational needs.
These notices are standard tools used by NESO’s control room most winters during the tightest periods of the year and do not themselves mean that electricity supplies are not sufficient to meet national electricity demand.
Dr Deborah Petterson, Director of Resilience and Emergency Management, NESO
“Our early view of the winter ahead shows a positive outlook with sufficient margins throughout the colder winter months.
“We will continue to monitor developments in global energy markets, remaining vigilant in our preparations to ensure that the resilience and reliability of the electricity network is maintained.”
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