Report claims 23% of transport electrified by 2050
Electricity for transport will grow from currently being 1% to 23% by 2050, according to DNV’s latest Transport in Transition report.
The study, which looks at how energy is used in transport, discovered oil demand will halve by 2050 – but falls short of the goals set out in the Paris Agreement.
It said opportunities for pilot projects and uptake of alternative energy “need to be seized as soon as possible” as the transport of passengers and goods accounts for about a quarter of global energy-related CO2 emissions – a share growing to 30% by 2050.
Road transport is the biggest opportunity for reducing fossil fuel reliance, falling from 38 million barrels per day at present to 19 million by 2050 – a reduction from 91% to 57%. The consumption of oil within aviation will be flat to 2050, though – with hydrocarbons set to have a 60% share in the sector in the same year. In maritime, the transition will be oil-based to an energy mix of 50% low and zero-carbon fuels, 19% natural gas and 18% biomass. Electricity will obtain only a 4% share, from short sea shipping and port stays for larger vessels.
Regionally, the report found Europe, North America and Greater China as front-runners in the uptake of battery electric vehicles – and investing in hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels for heavy goods movement. Sub Saharan Africa and North East Eurasia “remain far away” from establishing infrastructure and quantities of renewable electricity to decarbonize road transport, it said.
The report also discovered the “clear challenge” in a single solution for the decarbonisation of transport. It described a “number of constraints” associated to the adoption of biofuels, renewable electricity and CO2, and there was “no ‘one size fits all’” with a variety of energy sources needed.
It also highlighted the need for governmental and industry support to manage the rise in advanced biofuels for aviation and maritime, with the sustainable fuel expected to be more expensive than fossil fuel counterparts.
Remi Eriksen, Group President and CEO at DNV said: “Our Transport in Transition report highlights the challenges facing the industry and where further policies and investments are urgently needed to fast-track decarbonization of the transport sector.
“There is a pressing need for reliable non-fossil fuels to support emission reductions, particularly in the maritime and aviation sectors. It is essential that policy makers accelerate efforts to incentivize research and development, pilot projects and commercial uptake of carbon-neutral and zero-carbon fuels across the transport sector to support mid-century net zero goals.”
Image courtesy of DNV
