Battery-electric trucks are “set for take-off” in the early 2030s according to a report by think tank Carbon Tracker.
The news comes in the Trucking’s Tipping Point report, as the falling costs of battery-electric trucks are becoming more competitive with diesel.
It finds that improving total cost of ownership will drive electric trucks towards a commercial tipping point across major markets including Europe by 2030. Once electric trucks become cheaper to own and operate than diesel, fleet demand could accelerate rapidly.
In China, rapid electric-truck adoption has allowed manufacturers to increase production, cut costs and build a strong base from which to expand into global export markets.
Separate studies indicate that Europe’s truck CO₂ standards are encouraging manufacturers to accelerate electrification, with electric-truck sales increasing and registrations rising by 64% in the first year, under the new standards.
Earlier this year, the EU introduced greater flexibility in how manufacturers can meet its unchanged 2030 CO₂ target. ICCT estimates that under the amended rules, the minimum share of zero-emission heavy-duty vehicle sales needed for compliance could fall from 32% to 16%.
Drawing on the University of Exeter’s Future Technology Transformations (FTT) model and Carbon Tracker’s proprietary market and asset data, the report assesses when commercial tipping points could emerge and which manufacturers are best positioned for the transition.
For investors, the key risk is not simply when electric trucks overtake diesel in new sales, but how quickly adoption accelerates once commercial tipping points are reached, it said. Faster transition speeds could lead to and then accelerate the write-down of legacy internal combustion manufacturing assets, while rewarding manufacturers that are better prepared for an increasingly electric market, it added.
Carbon Tracker recommends investors stress-test truckmaker valuations against faster electric adoption, challenge manufacturers on their plans to scale electric production and reduce costs, and support stable policies that accelerate market growth ahead of 2030.
Ben Scott, Head of Energy Supply at Carbon Tracker, said:
“Electric trucks are approaching a commercial tipping point. Once the economics beat diesel, adoption could accelerate rapidly.”
“European truckmakers have a window to scale production and bring prices down. If they fail to use it, lower-cost competitors could be well placed to capture the market share as global demand grows.”
“Weakening policy now risks slowing investment and keeping electric-truck prices high just as global competitors increase production and reduce costs.”
Image of report courtesy of Carbon Tracker
