Changes to the ZEV Mandate could result in UK carbon emissions being pushed up by millions of tonnes, according to analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU).
The assessment states that even the least severe cut to electric vehicle (EV) sales targets, changing it from 80% to 70% of new vehicles by 2030 would result in emissions great than burning all the gas in the Jackdaw oil field.
If the greatest cut was put in place, reducing the ZEV Mandate to 50% of new vehicle sales, this would likely lead to a policy ‘cliff edge’ in 2035 – and an additional 147 megatonnes of carbon, more than half (58%) of the emissions from the use of the oil in the Rosebank field.
In addition, changes to the Mandate could incentivise manufacturers to try to sell more plug-in hybrids which have been found to consume five times more fuel than their manufacturers claim.
Previous analysis from ECIU has found that the weakening the ZEV mandate would add billions to the nation’s driving bill, as electric cars are on average hundreds of pounds a year cheaper to run too – based on current petrol and diesel prices.
It comes as the car industry has met the ZEV Mandate for the first two years of the policy, and is on track for 2026 too, according to the ECIU.
Elsewhere in Europe, France saw EVs achieve a 42% new car sale market share in September with Germany reaching 34.6% in the same month.
Jess Ralston, Head of Energy at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), said:
“The vast majority of oil – 80% – from drilling in the North Sea immediately ships overseas. Even at the less severe end of what the Government is considering, the resulting extra emissions are more than burning all the gas in the Jackdaw field and in a worst-case scenario are similar to an oil field. With climate concern high among the public after the extreme heat and persisting drought, and public support for the net zero target up above two-thirds, a decision to U-turn could look very odd.
“With diesel prices through the £2 a litre mark, the second-hand EV market booming and ministers having talked about getting families off the fossil fuel rollercoaster, this would be the opposite, locking in higher driving costs, more air pollution and higher carbon emissions.
“In echoes of ‘dieselgate’, the Government’s watering down of policy last year has already incentivised manufacturers to sell more hybrids which burn far more fuel, so produce more pollution and cost families much more to drive than claimed.
“While EV sales are rocketing in Europe, UK-based car manufacturers have sadly been slow to embrace the shift, falling behind rivals. But the Government could find ways to support them transition, securing jobs for the long-term, that doesn’t involve pushing up driving bills and emissions as we head into a diesel crisis and likely the hottest year on record.”
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