Weakening the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate could delay sales of UK EV domestic charge point, reduce flexible energy, as well as produce more carbon emissions, according to new analysis from UK trade association BEAMA.
The figures follow BEAMA modelling of what could happen if the UK Government reduced the 2030 target for zero-emission car sales from 80% to 50%, following the launch of a review published on 14 August.
Reducing the 2030 target could slow the potential flexible charging capacity from electric vehicles, resulting in up to 12GW less flexible charging capacity by 2034.
BEAMA estimates the weaker trajectory could mean up to 1.7 million fewer home charge point sales by 2034 than under the existing Mandate, creating the £1.56 billion loss.
Under the 50% target, the 12GW less flexible charging capacity within the next decade would “sit uneasily”, BEAMA said, with the UK Government’s own Clean Flexibility Roadmap, which outlines a path to 4.5GW from EV smart charging by 2030.
Also through the 50% scenario, the additional petrol, diesel and plug-in hybrid vehicles sold could generate 71MtCO2e over their lifetimes.
For scale, this figure is close to the emissions produced by the UK’s entire transport sector in a year, BEAMA said.
Matt Adams, Head of Electrical Transport Systems at BEAMA, said:
“Government needs to decide whether it is mandating or meandering. Manufacturers have invested millions against the trajectory the Government set. If the targets keep changing, the case for investing, expanding and creating well paid, highly skilled jobs that support communities, becomes harder to make.
“Ministers want EV smart charging to provide more flexibility to the electricity system, while considering a weaker Mandate that could slow EV uptake and the rollout of smart charge points.
“And there is a wider contradiction. People are being asked to use less water in their gardens as the country grapples with hotter, drier weather. Yet Ministers are considering changes that our analysis suggests could add 71 million tonnes of carbon emissions over the lifetime of the vehicles affected. If they are prepared to accept higher emissions from road transport, they need to explain where those emissions reductions will be made elsewhere.”
Andrew Clint, CEO, smart home energy technology manufacturer myenergi said:
“The UK has built a world-class EV charging industry on the foundation of clear government policy, with companies like myenergi creating jobs, investing in innovation and exporting British technology worldwide. The Government should stick to the plan, provide long-term certainty for industry, and ensure the UK remains a leader in the transition to clean transport.”
Paul Taylor, Managing Director, Em-lite, specialists in smart and prepayment metering manufacture, said:
“It is clear from the Governments proposals they do not realise the impact on businesses and consumers of their messaging. Government acknowledge that we need to improve EV uptake, yet their messaging undermines this entirely. What this means is more expensive to run petrol cars will be on sale for longer and investment in the UK by charge point manufacturers will be reduced as the government increases uncertainty in the UK as a place to invest.”
Melanie Lane, CEO, Pod, said:
“While unwelcome news, this consultation provides an opportunity for the EV sector to reiterate confidence in the ZEV mandate. It has helped drive record EV adoption while sending a clear and consistent signal to the whole ecosystem, from manufacturers and charging providers to investors and drivers, that the UK is committed to an electric future. It’s vital that industry now rallies around the mandate and protects that certainty, ensuring we have the investment and infrastructure needed to enable EV adoption at even greater scale.”
Image courtesy of Green Car Guide
