Electric vehicle (EV) sales in the UK will increase to 580,000 in 2026, representing 29% of a total of two million new car registrations, according to forecasts from DriveElectric.
Compared to electric car sales equating to 23.4% of the total new car market in 2025 (473,348 units) this is a 5.6% increase (although new electric car registrations accounted for 32.2% of the market in December 2025).
Sales of ELCVs (Electric Light Commercial Vehicles) – primarily vans – are forecasted to increase by 50% in 2026, taking registrations to around 45,000, compared to approximately 30,169 registrations in 2025 (a 9.5% market share).
This increase is due to a number of factors, including more vans now having a one tonne payload and a real-world range of over 200 miles, making them more viable for fleets, it said.
But the forecast of EVs representing 29% of total sales this year means that the 2026 Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate target of 33% will be missed.
Flexibilities in the ZEV mandate have resulted in the target being exceeded in 2024 however, and this is also expected to be the case in 2025. Increased ELCV sales are due to help manufacturers achieve the overall targets in 2026, as ELCV registrations count double for the ZEV mandate.
In 2026 there will also continue to be more new entrants from China, as well as battery costs reducing and more EVs being offered at pricing closer to petrol cars.
There are still significant financial incentives for businesses and fleets to transition to EVs, through benefit in kind tax rates – 3% until April 2026, then rising by 1% each year to 5% in April 2028. These low BIK rates have fuelled the increasing popularity of salary sacrifice, which can reduce the monthly cost of driving an EV by up to 40% for the employees of an organisation. In addition, the number of new registrations cars increases the overall used EV market in the longer term.
The UK’s charging network is also continuing to expand, particularly with more rapid and ultra-rapid chargers, which experienced a 23% growth in 2025, according to Zapmap.
DriveElectric uses its own model built from its intelligence of the UK market to forecast registrations of battery electric cars and vans each year.
Adam Kemp, Partnerships Director, DriveElectric, said:
“There are a range of factors which will provide the opportunity for increasing numbers of motorists to make the switch to EVs in 2026, including the Electric Car Grant, continued incentives for fleet customers, interest rates reducing, and an extremely competitive EV market space offering more affordable models with longer driving ranges.
“But it’s electric vans that promise to be the really interesting story in 2026, with our forecasts showing a 50% increase in registrations, thanks to longer driving ranges and more affordable pricing for new models, such as the Kia PV5.”
Image courtesy of DriveElectric
