Battery electric vehicle (BEV) manufacturing in the UK is set to significantly surpass forecasts made for both global and European manufacture.
According to figures from the latest Advanced Propulsion Centre UK’s (APC) demand report, UK automakers will be achieving near-total battery-electric production by 2035.
Globally, BEV is predicted to account for 38% of all vehicles manufactured, while in Europe it is 57%.
But while the near-total production is predicted to be in effect by 2035, in the short-term there is an expectation that battery demand will slow from previous forecasts of 2027 and beyond.
This is due to an increased demand for hybrid vehicles, which are now expected to account for a greater percentage of electrified vehicles than earlier forecasts.
Julian Hetherington MBE, Automotive Transformation Director at the APC, said:
“We have set a base-case scenario which forecasts the UK to be manufacturing 1 million BEVs by 2035. However, given geopolitical instability, uncertainty around the market and supply chain capabilities, we have also considered within the report that a more cautious forecast could see this number reduced by 150,000 vehicles. A regrowth to circa 1.3m units per annum scenario is considered possible.
“The transition is happening, and we are seeing demand for automotive batteries increasing steadily in all regions over the next 15 years, but perhaps not at the early pace we initially forecast. Hybrid production will take up a larger market share which indicates there is an increased focus on transitionary technologies to enable the shift towards electrified mobility.”
The report also details the demand levels for differing battery chemistries, noting regional differences in preferences for the cathode chemistry split, battery material demand and supply for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles.
Dr Hadi Moztarzadeh, Head of Technology Trends at the APC, said:
“As OEMs are actively diversifying battery chemistries and localising supply chains to mitigate geopolitical risks and meet regional sustainability mandates, over the next 10 to 15 years we will see lithium-iron phosphate (LF(X)P) battery chemistries maintaining the lion’s share of world-vehicle production, with most of this accounted for in China.
“There will also be increases in Europe in this chemistry application, due to cost-effectiveness, material security, superior safety profile, and life cycle. It is currently not as popular in Europe and the UK, with nickel-based chemistries the preferred option, but as we move into 2027 and beyond, we will see demand for LF(X)P beginning to creep up.”
