Independent transport research organisation New AutoMotive has welcomed the Department for Transport’s (DfT) 2024 Vehicle Emissions Trading Schemes (VETS) final compliance report which shows that both the UK car and van markets over-complied with the ZEV mandate during its first year.
According to the group, this data contradicts repeated claims from industry lobby groups throughout 2024 and 2025 that the sector would fall short of statutory requirements.
The report reveals that while the headline Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) target for cars was set at 22%, the “real” compliance floor was significantly lower due to the flexible design of the regulation. Car manufacturers extensively utilised CO2 conversion flexibilities, generating the equivalent of 4.7% in additional ZEV registrations by improving the efficiency of non-zero-emission vehicles.
The Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate policy requires 80% of new car sales and 70% of van sales to be zero-emission by 2030.
By 2035, all new cars and vans sold must be zero-emission.
The scheme began with 22% of new car sales needing to be zero-emission in 2024.
Key Findings from the 2024 VETS Compliance Report:
- Market-Wide Success: The car and van markets both over-complied with the VETS Order in the 2024 scheme year.
- Effective Flexibility: Car manufacturers used CO2 to ZEV conversion to cover 4.7% of their targets and borrowed 1.2%, meaning the effective registration floor for compliance was only 17.3%.
- Future Proofing: Due to over-compliance, a “substantial number” of allowances have been banked by manufacturers to meet targets in future years.
- Van Market Resilience: Despite a headline target of 10%, van manufacturers met their obligations through 6.8% ZEV sales combined with a 5.3% contribution from CO2 conversion.
New AutoMotive will use the final 2024 dataset to further refine its Electric Car Count (ECC) modeling, providing the industry and policymakers with the UK’s most accurate, data-driven insights into the transition to electric vehicles.
Ben Nelmes, CEO of New AutoMotive, commented:
“There has been a consistent drumbeat of claims from automotive industry representatives that the ZEV mandate targets were unattainable. Today’s DfT report proves that those claims were false. Not only did manufacturers meet the targets, they over-complied.
“At New AutoMotive, our modeling estimated the ‘real’ required ZEV sales level was being easily achieved by carmakers. I am delighted that the Department for Transport’s report validates our methodology and shows that the mandate is working exactly as intended, driving down emissions while providing manufacturers with the flexibility they need to transition.”
Vicky Edmonds, Chief Executive Officer, EVA England, said:
“Drivers will welcome this as clear evidence the EV transition is moving in the right direction. The fact the market overperformed against the 2024 ZEV targets for both cars and vans shows the shift to electric is gathering pace. These annual releases are important benchmarks for holding the sector to account. For drivers, that progress should translate into more electric models on the market and greater choice. Particularly as households look to reduce exposure to volatile petrol prices.”
Fiona Howarth, Founder & Director, Octopus Electric Vehicles said:
“Drivers are already choosing electric in growing numbers because the technology and economics make sense. The ZEV mandate provides the certainty that brings more choice and better value to drivers.
“Weakening this policy now would be the wrong approach. We should be doubling down on ways to power our cars and homes with energy produced here in the UK, rather than relying on imported fossil fuels. The focus now should be on building confidence and accelerating the transition, not slowing it down.”
Tanya Sinclair, CEO, Electric Vehicles UK said:
“The UK’s EV transition is already well underway. Electric vehicles accounted for almost a quarter of new car sales last year and more than two million drivers are already enjoying the benefits of going electric.
“If some manufacturers now want to weaken the targets designed to bring these vehicles to market, they are only hurting themselves. Drivers are increasingly choosing electric because the technology, performance and running costs are better.
“Asking the government to slow the rollout of EVs goes against what drivers want and risks reducing choice just as demand is growing. Weakening the ZEV mandate will not stop the transition. It will only leave the companies calling for it further behind.”
Ginny Buckley, the chief executive of Electrifying.com, the electric car buying and advice site said:
“For most drivers the question is simple: does an electric car fit my life and can I afford it?
“Mixed messages around policies like the ZEV mandate and the threat of new taxes like pay per mile are sowing confusion among car buyers at exactly the moment confidence needs building.
“Government and industry must start working together and speak with one voice to create a clear, credible path that gives motorists the confidence to choose an EV for their next car.”
Rhodri Darch, Co-CEO of Everrati, said:
“The global momentum behind the shift to electric mobility continues to grow. What we are seeing is a structural transition in how vehicles and propulsion systems are developed.
“The UK already has world-leading expertise in low-volume engineering and specialist electrification, and at Everrati, we are seeing strong demand from international clients looking to access those capabilities.”
Toby Poston, Chief Executive, BVRLA, said:
“Today’s data on the ZEV mandate rubberstamps the progress we’ve seen in road transport decarbonisation. Driven by BVRLA members and their customers, the new EV market has been on a long-term growth trajectory.
“The finish line remains miles away though, the hard yards lie ahead. Those cars will shortly be feeding the used EV market, which remains immature, unstable and unsupported. Auto Trader data shows EV values are down 7% year on year. Petrol values are steady. Rampant EV depreciation hurts the entire market and commands closer attention. The headline figures show we’re delivering growth, but it takes a holistic approach to create the stable market we all need.”
Read the Vehicle Emissions Trading Schemes (VETS) final compliance report here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vehicle-emissions-trading-schemes-vets-final-compliance-information-2024
Image courtesy of Green Car Guide.
