Lithium-ion battery pack prices have fallen by 89% in a decade, according to the latest forecast from researchers BloombergNEF.
In 2010 the cost was around £800 per kWh – but this has fallen to less than £80 by 2023.
The research firm said that prices of £80-90 were already reported in e-bus batteries in China. Battery electric vehicle (BEV) pack prices are £93/kWh on a volume-weighted average basis. At the cell level, average BEV prices were just £90/kWh. This indicates that on average, the battery pack portion of the total price accounts for 21%.
The £80 price point is critical as it will mean that EVs can be sold at a similar price to ICE vehicles. Batteries are by far the largest cost for EVs, and once the cost pressure is reduced, the opportunity for significant price falls is likely.
The battery price reductions this year are due to the growth in BEV sales, increased order sizes and new designs. New manufacturing technology and cathode chemistry also assisted.
Speaking about the findings, James Frith, BloolmbergNEF’s head of energy storage research and lead author of the report, said: “It is a historic milestone to see pack prices of less than $100/kWh reported. Within just a few years we will see the average price in the industry pass this point.”
But the researchers also said that there was “much less certainty” on how to reach £42/kWh by 2030 – it’s current expectation. They were keen to stress that this wasn’t because “it is impossible” but just due to several pathways to the target.